Regional Economic Performance Indicators

The Plan for Progress includes a primary focus on the most important factor confronting the Pioneer Valley economy, namely the talent, or human capital, that comprises the current and future workforce for our region. Workforce and talent issues today constitute the most important of all factors for both attracting and retaining businesses and jobs and, thus, are pivotal to the sustained economic success of metropolitan regions across the U.S. – including the Pioneer Valley and its larger, interstate region, the New England Knowledge Corridor.

Click Goal One attachment for more information.

Early Education Enrollment

In an educational environment increasingly requiring quantitative measures of achievement and accountability, scores from standardized tests are used to “identify the strengths and weaknesses in curriculum and instruction” at the local level and to hold schools and school districts accountable with respect to “established standards for performance for districts that improve or fail to improve student academic performance.”* Educational development standards indicate that students should be able to read proficiently by the end of third grade, that is, have a wide vocabulary, comprehend, write logically, speak coherently, read fluently and understand different types of texts. Beginning in fourth grade, all these skills are necessary for them to progress with more challenging work.

In past reports, The percent of all children in the third grade who received a score of “proficient” or higher on the MCAS English language arts test was used to reflect early literacy skills achieved during formal early childhood education. However, to further align testing with Common Core Standards, in 2015 the Massachusetts Board of Elementary and Secondary Education began administering a new test called the Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers (PARCC). This transition from PARCC to MCAS is an ongoing process. Although many school districts are now using this test, some are continuing to use an updated version of the MCAS, which includes only some elements of the PARCC. These changes have made for a different assessment system than years past, which makes data difficult to compare not only from year-to-year but also betewen communities. As such, this indicator is not included for this year, but will be included in future Plan for Progress reports as the data become more comparable over time.

3rd Grade Reading Proficiency

In an educational environment increasingly requiring quantitative measures of achievement and accountability, scores from standardized tests are used to “identify the strengths and weaknesses in curriculum and instruction” at the local level and to hold schools and school districts accountable with respect to “established standards for performance for districts that improve or fail to improve student academic performance.”* Educational development standards indicate that students should be able to read proficiently by the end of third grade, that is, have a wide vocabulary, comprehend, write logically, speak coherently, read fluently and understand different types of texts. Beginning in fourth grade, all these skills are necessary for them to progress with more challenging work.

In past reports, The percent of all children in the third grade who received a score of “proficient” or higher on the MCAS English language arts test was used to reflect early literacy skills achieved during formal early childhood education. However, to further align testing with Common Core Standards, in 2015 the Massachusetts Board of Elementary and Secondary Education began administering a new test called the Partnership for Assessment of Readiness for College and Careers (PARCC). This transition from PARCC to MCAS is an ongoing process. Although many school districts are now using this test, some are continuing to use an updated version of the MCAS, which includes only some elements of the PARCC. These changes have made for a different assessment system than years past, which makes data difficult to compare not only from year-to-year but also between communities. As such, this indicator is not included for this year, but will be included in future Plan for Progress reports as the data become more comparable over time.

High School Graduation Rate

High school graduation rates are a vital component in assessing the status of individuals and communities because educational attainment has a strong influence on future work and earning potential as well as the ability to constructively contribute to one’s community. Graduating from high school has become a minimum requirement for participation in most of our nation’s economy. The percent of all students enrolled in grades nine through twelve who graduate within 5 years or less is measured in this indicator. The rate is adjusted for students who transfer in or out of the schools, and thus measures only those students who began at a given school and graduated from that same school.

Across the region, there was an increase of 2.2 percent in graduation rates between 2014 and 2015. This increase was largely driven by Franklin County, which experienced an increase of 4.3 percent. Although Hampden County experienced a 2.7% drop, the urban core cities of Springfield or Holyoke showed positive trends, experiencing a 6% increase and 1.2% increase in high school graduation rates, respectively.

Community College Graduates

Most of today’s well paying jobs require a credential beyond a high school degree. Associate’s degrees and/or certificates are the most accessible and promising route to a job with a living wage and a genuine career path for many. This indicator measures the number of people in the who complete an associate’s degree in a given academic year at one of the three community colleges in the region – Greenfield Community College, Holyoke Community College and Springfield Technical Community College.

Between 2015 and 2016, the number of community college graduates in the Pioneer Valley decreased by about 5%. This trend was consistent across all three counties.

Educational Attainment of the Workforce

Higher education is increasingly necessary for long-term access to well-paying jobs. The extent of educational attainment, therefore, is indicative of a population’s ability to function and excel economically and an individual’s economic and social opportunities in life. While two-year associate’s degrees meet the needs of many positions, the bachelor’s degree is rapidly becoming a requirement for even some entry-level positions. Because a solid educational background, typically achieved during high school, is a prerequisite for getting a bachelor’s degree, this indicator also measures a community’s ability to prepare their children for college. This indicator measures the percent of the population over the age of 25 with a bachelor’s degree or higher.

Across the region, attainment of bachelor’s degrees remained fairly neutral, decreasing slightly from 31.7% to 31.4% between 2014 and 2015. However, trends varied considerably throughout the region. Hampden County and Franklin County experienced decreases of 5.8% and 4.2% respectively, while Hampshire County experienced an increase of 10.4%.

Workforce Training Participation

Not all jobs require a bachelor’s degree to be effective, and not all bachelor’s degrees teach the specific skills that each job requires. People switch careers later in life and need specific training to learn skills that will support that shift. The Plan for Progress recognizes that a robust pipeline to a skilled workforce involves training people at all levels of skill and experience for a wide variety of jobs. This indicator evaluates the level of participation in programs that train people with specific skills to prepare them for jobs in the workforce. Data includes the number of people who take part in job skills training programs through the Regional Employment Boards or one of the three community colleges within the region. The majority of these are non-credit courses through the community colleges.

Between FY2015 and FY2016, the number of participants in workforce training programs increased significantly across the region, from 6,230 to 8,078 – an increase of almost 30%. This trend was driven largely by Hampden County, which saw an increase of about 41% between FY2015 and FY2016. Franklin and Hampshire Counties experienced a lower but still considerable increase of 8.3% during this time.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, is the percentage of people in the labor force who do not have a job (the labor force is the sum of those who have a job and those who are looking for a job). Unemployment rates are frequently used to report on the state of the economy: a high unemployment rate can indicate a shrinking economy. Furthermore, unemployment rates give an idea of the portion of a community’s population that is financially insecure because they do not have a job. It should be noted that because unemployment rates are calculated based on a percentage of the people who are looking for work, it is actually an undercount of the total number of unemployed people who may actually wish to be employed. The unemployment rate does not include people who left the official labor force. This too is a significant factor as it underscores the growing portion of the population who are no longer considered employable for any number of reasons.

The Pioneer Valley experienced a significant drop in unemployment between 2015 and 2016, with the number of unemployed people decreasing 25.4% in one year. All three counties in the region experienced similar and significant drops. Franklin County and Hampden County had the largest proportional decreases, each of decreasing just over 26 percent.

This goal of the Plan for Progress focuses on providing the essential ingredients for businesses of all sizes to thrive, from the sole proprietor to the largest corporations, with special emphasis on increasing coordination and outreach to entrepreneurs of all ethnicities. The Plan also strongly encourages impact investments into companies, organizations and funds with the intention to generate measurable social, environmental and employment impact as well as strong financial return

Click here for more information about Goal Two.

Employers

Another method of measuring the strength of an economy and the opportunities within it is to count the total number of employer businesses that exist. When an economy is strong, there are appropriate economic development supports, and when confidence is high, existing businesses are more likely to stay operating and within the region. What’s more, businesses from outside of the region are more likely to relocate here, and local entrepreneurs are more likely to start to grow a business. This indicator measures the total number of establishments in the area that have more than one employee.

Between 2014 and 2015, the Pioneer Valley region saw an increase of 825 employers, representing a rate of growth of 3.5%. While all three counties in the region experience similar trends, the largest area of growth was in Hampden County and within the urban core cities of Springfield and Holyoke.

Total Jobs

In addition to measuring the number of employers supported by an economy, measuring the total number of jobs reflects the size and strength of those employers. It gives perspective on the number of employment opportunities that exist within the region. Additionally, the number of jobs can add nuance to unemployment rates. For example, increased unemployment coinciding with increased jobs may suggest that a larger portion of the employment opportunities are part time and people are working multiple jobs at the same time rather than more people getting full time jobs. This indicator measures the total number of jobs that exist in an area.

Between 2014 and 2015, the Pioneer Valley saw a slight increase in the number of jobs by 1.5 percent. This trend was seen in each county, with all three experiencing increases in the number of jobs throughout the year.

Sites Ready For Development

A critical component to a region’s economic competitiveness is whether vacant commercial properties are available and ready to be used by companies who may want to grow within, or move to, the area. If properties are polluted or have buildings that need to be demolished, the likelihood of new employer prospects choosing that site are significantly diminished. This indicator measures the number of commercial properties that are pre-permitted by WestMass Area Development Corporation and are ready for occupancy.

Between 2015 and 2016, the number of sites ready for development in the Pioneer Valley remained the same. Most pre-permitted sites are located in Hampden County, with one site in Hampshire County.

Percent of Population with Income below 200% of Poverty Line

Poverty rates are an important indicator of what portion of a community’s population likely lacks the necessary resources to provide for themselves or their families. The most widely used measure of poverty is the federal poverty rate, which is the percentage of all people who are living in households with incomes that fall below the federal poverty line. The poverty line is established based on the current cost of basic goods and services (such as food, housing, transportation, and other goods and services), and what proportion of family income is spent on those items. While the threshold is adjusted over time and is dependent on family size and ages of family members, it is increasingly thought to understate the extent of poverty. The threshold in 2015 was $15,930 for a two person household – a very low level of income given that a low-cost one-bedroom apartment in western Massachusetts will typically rent for more than $8,800 per year.

Because the federal poverty line is so low and generally misses a large portion of the population who are in economic distress, this indicator measures the percentage of the population living below 200% of that line. Poverty rates are calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau based on the income and number of people in each household.

One out of every three people in the Pioneer Valley live in households with incomes below 200% of the poverty line. Across the region, that rate remained relatively stable, increasing only slightly from 33.7% in 2014 to 33.8% in 2015. However, the trend varied by county, with Franklin County residents experiencing a large decrease of 7.1%, Hampshire County residents experiencing an increase of 6.6%, and and Hampden County remaining stable with just a slight decrease of 0.4%.

Without a modern, high quality network of infrastructure, a region cannot sustain economic activity, retain its students and workers, or attract visitors, tourists and investment. The Pioneer Valley’s infrastructure includes its transportation, broadband and energy networks; public health and safety resources; housing supply; and natural resources including water supplies, agricultural land and open space/recreational areas. Both local and regional efforts are necessary to ensure consistency, resiliency, and sufficient redundancy to withstand disruptions. The following strategies are meant to achieve these goals:

1. Enhance High-Tech and Conventional Infrastructure.
2. Increase Use of Clean Energy to Reduce Business Costs and Improve the Environment.
3. Enhance Regional Approaches to Public Safety, Public Health and Disaster Resilience.
4. Develop an Array of Housing Options that Foster Economic Competitiveness.
5. Revitalize and Protect the Connecticut River and its Watershed.

Click here for more information about Goal Three.

High Speed Internet

Without a modern, high quality network of infrastructure, a region cannot sustain economic activity, retain its students and workers, or attract visitors, tourists and investment. High-speed internet access has become a core requirement for economic development well beyond technology and business fields. It is now an expected service for most businesseses, governments, and educational institutions, even for activities like elementary school homework. This indicator measures the percent of the population with access to high speed internet, as defined by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC). In 2015, the FCC increased the download speed standard for broadband, which is now 25Mbps.

Between 2013 and 2014, the percent of the population with access to high-speed internet remained stable, increasing just 0.5% (from 94.8 to 95.3%). This rate is just under the Massachusetts state average of 97%, and above the national average of 85.3 percent.

The FCC recently updated their standards and calculations on this measure. These new standards are not easily comparable to previous measures. For this reason, there is not yet trend data for 2015 and 2016. Future reports will provide trends based on this new standard.

Pavement Conditions: Overall Condition Index (OCI)

Similar to bridge maintenance, quality of road pavement conditions affect freight deliveries, tourism, and daily commuters. Road pavement conditions are measured using the Overall Condition Index (OCI). While the Pioneer Valley Planning Commission collects data for all 43 municipalities in the region, the Franklin Regional Council of Governments conducts a survey of road conditions in Franklin County using a different system. Thus, a comparison between the two areas is not possible. OCI values span from 0 to 100, where zero indicates that the road is impassable and 100 indicates that a road in excellent condition. Average OCIs are computed for each community for the total number of miles of road eligible to receive federal aid.

Most recently, data was collected for the Pioneer Valley Region (Hampden & Hampshire Counties) in 2011 and again in 2015. During this time, pavement conditions across the Pioneer Valley region worsened by an average of 3.9% annually. Trends were fairly similar in both counties, though the decrease was more significant in Hampden County which experienced an average annual drop of 4.4 percent.

Total Annual Rides On PVTA, FRTA, And Amtrak Trains Within The Region

Public transit use and access directly reflect the degree to which a regional transit network and its corresponding schedules meet the needs of residents, workers, and employers. An effective public transit system with extensive, regular ridership decreases traffic and travel times, reduces pollution, and creates desirable places to live and work for a diverse area of people. People who cannot afford cars or would rather not drive them on a regular basis are more likely to live near extensive and efficient public transit networks. In this scenario, businesses are also more accessible to employees and customers. This indicator measures the total annual rides on the two major transit authorities within the region (PVTA and FRTA) as well as Amtrak trains that service the region.

Between FY2015 and FY2016, total transit ridership remained fairly stable, increasing by just 0.5 percent. Trends varied across transit types. Bus ridership in the Pioneer Valley saw a modest increase of 0.73%, with PVTA ridership steadily growing and FRTA ridership experiencing a modest decline. At the same time, the region experienced a significant decrease in Amtrak riders coming in and out of Springfield – nearly 31,000 less passengers (-25%). While there were some increases in passenger rail riders north of Springfield in both Holyoke and Northampton that can be attributed to new stations and recently upgraded routes, this only accounted for about 6,500 riders. Much of the remaining decrease is likely due to construction that is being done south of Springfield on the tracks in Connecticut which have required passengers to be bused between New Haven, CT and Springfield, MA.

Completed Bike Facility Mileage

Bicycling is generally regarded as one of the most efficient means of transportation – both for the user and the environment at large. Providing and continually extending bicycle-friendly paths can assist communities improve connectivity between destinations, provide transportation options to all users, and reduce the transportation impacts on the environment. The availability of bicycle transportation is also an important factor in individual health outcomes. This indicator measures the total number of miles of on and off-road improved bike facilities. ‘Bike facilities’ is a broad term that encompasses sign-posted in-road bike routes, bike lanes, shared use paths and paved bike shoulders.

At this time, there is only one year of data available for this indicator. In 2013, a total of 148 miles of bike facilities existed across the Pioneer Valley. Since that time, many proposed bike facilities been built, but the exact number of additional miles is not yet compiled. Bike facilities in the region seem to be concentrated in the more rural and less populated areas of the region. Nearly half of these bike facilities are located within Franklin County (63.4 miles), while Hampshire County has about one third of the facilities and Hampden County has just under 25 percent.

Combined Transportation And Housing Costs As A Percent Of Income

Transportation and housing are generally the two most significant expenses for households. As a result, a region’s affordability is increasingly being examined specifically based on the cost of these two major domains. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has developed a method of examining these factors in relation to income by comparing these combined average expenses as a percent of household incomes. For this indicator, the average household contains four people, two of whom commute.

The LAI is not calculated annually, and the most recent data was published in 2012, and was based on Census data from 2008-2012. At that time, an average four person household with two commuters in the Pioneer Valley spent about 52% of the household’s income on housing and transportation costs.

New data is expected to be released later in 2017.

Number of Communities Meeting 10% Affordable Housing Threshold

The economic competitiveness of a region depends on the ability of workers of all income levels to find reasonably affordable housing. The state’s Comprehensive Permit Law, alternatively called “Chapter 40B” was adopted in 1969 to address racial and economic segregation, shortages in decent housing, inner city poverty, and exclusionary zoning practices in suburban and rural communities. It compels communities to have at least 10 percent of all housing set aside as affordable housing that is protected by long-term affordability restrictions. Communities below 10 percent must allow a streamlined process for proposed housing developments on the condition that 25 percent or more of the proposed units are reserved for low or moderate income households. This indicator measures the percent of all housing units in a community that are designated as subsidized housing units. Not included in this indicator is housing that is affordable, but does not have established long-term affordability restrictions attached to the property.

In 2014, there were nine communities in the Pioneer Valley that met this requirement, including many of the larger municipalities. Two years later, in 2016, there were eight communities, making for an average annual decrease of about 5.6 percent.

Home Ownership

Home ownership is a significant indicator of economic security. The primary financial investment for the vast majority of people in the U.S. is their home. Home ownership also strengthens communities by building a strong connection between people and the place they live. However, the downside of a high owner-occupancy rate is that rental options for young, old, or transitional populations are limited. A lack of rental options, often supported by local zoning regulations, can also help to perpetuate socio-economic segregation throughout the region. Home ownership is expressed as the percent of all housing units that are occupied by the property’s owner. This indicator measures the percentage of housing units (including condominiums, apartments, houses, and mobile homes) that are occupied by the owner, as opposed to a renter. The American Community Survey collects and analyzes this data, and provides estimates on an annual basis.

The percent of owner-occupied housing units in the Pioneer Valley increased from 61.1% in 2014 to 63.2% in 2015. This trend was consistent across Hampden and Hampshire counties, with each experiencing increases around 4 percent. Franklin County remained stable, decreasing less than 1 percent.

Total # Of CSOs Feeding into the CT River or its Tributaries

Ordinarily, storm water is sent to a wastewater treatment plant before it is emptied to a river. However, during high rainfall events, treatment plants may not be able to process all wastewater. Combined sewer overflows (CSOs) were built as a way to deal with this excess wastewater, essentially bypassing the treatment plant. However, the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection (MassDEP) is working to reduce the amount of active CSOs across the state in an effort to reduce water pollution. MassDEP’s Western Regional Office maintains a list of active CSOs within the region.

Between 2014 and 2016, the number of CSOs draining to the Connecticut River or its tributaries fell from 61 to 59, for an average decrease of 3.3% per year. Both of the CSOs that were removed were located in the City of Chicopee. All remaining CSOs within the region are located throughout Hampden County.

The new Plan for Progress celebrates our pioneering history of innovation, social responsibility, freedom and collaboration. However, there remain economic disparities in the region (as well as across the state) which must be addressed if the region is to fully embrace success and long-term prosperity. The recent success of the Leadership Pioneer Valley program is an indication of the need and desire to sustain and improve broad collaboration and develop a succession strategy for regional leadership. This leadership must engage with those it serves on a regular basis to ensure that needs are being met. Furthermore, responsible economic development includes a regular and honest evaluation of progress through measurable benchmarks, intended to guide us as well as demonstrate progress to those outside our region.

Click here for more information about Goal Four.

Income Inequality

In addition to educational, employment, poverty, transportation, and housing indicators, the overall level of economic inequality has important economic development implications. A community with lower levels of economic inequality is more likely to have economic and social stability at a community-wide level. Income inequality is a good way to provide a snapshot of how income is distributed throughout a region. The Gini Coefficient is one way to measure a region’s level of inequality. This indicator is a measure of how income is or is not equally distributed through a particular area. The Gini Coefficient is measured on a scale of 0 to 1, where 0 is complete equality and 1 is complete inequality.

This particular indicator does not allow calculating income inequality across the entire Pioneer Valley in a reliable way, but rates are available within each county area.

Within the Pioneer Valley, income inequality is growing in Hampshire County and Franklin County, but remaining fairly steady in Hampden County. Between 2014 and 2015, income inequality grew 1.5% across Hampshire County and 2% across Franklin County. During this time period, Hampshire County surpassed Hampden County having more inequality between residents of the county.

State Funding – Non-School Local Aid

Local aid provided by the Commonwealth of Massachusetts to municipalities is a significant source of budget revenue. While much of this aid provides funding for the local school system, it also funds veterans benefits, public libraries and general community programming. Municipalities track their funding on ‘Cherry Sheets’ which are maintained by the Massachusetts Department of Revenue.

Total non-school local aid increased 6.9% in the Pioneer Valley between FY2016-FY2017. Increases occurred across all three counties in the region, with Hampden County experiencing the largest increase of 8.7%, which was drive largely by an 11.6% increase in local aid to Springfield. Hampshire and Franklin experienced slightly more modest increases, of 4.1% and 1.3%, respectively.

Leadership Programs

A key strategy of the Plan for Progress is to ensure the development and mentorship of a new generation of collaborative, diverse, professional and civically engaged leaders who will ensure that the future of the Pioneer Valley continues to be bright. The region has a few specific programs designed for supporting this type of leadership. This indicator measures the total number of graduates from all leadership programs within the region, including the Women’s Fund of Western Massachussetts, Leadership Pioneer Valley, Leadership Holyoke which is run by the Holyoke Chamber of Commerce, Springfield Leadership Institute which is run by the Springfield Chamber of Commerce, in partnership with Western New England College of Business.

The number of graduates from these leadership programs decreased by 5.7% between 2015 and 2016.

Active Voters

Voter registration is one method to measure the level of citizen engagement in the political process and the civic concerns of their community. Low voter registration rates can be interpreted in many ways. Some argue that low voter registration rates reflect a citizenry’s lack of interest in the political process, a disconnection between citizen and government, and a sentiment that participation does not affect outcomes. Another interpretation of low voter registration is that this trend reflects a citizenry that is satisfied with the status quo. Language and educational barriers also influence voter registration rates by inhibiting participation. Voter registration rates are, in some ways, a better indicator of civic participation than voter turnout rates because the former do not reflect as much year-to-year variation based on the issues or elections on the ballot. This indicator measures the total number of registered voters divided by the total population over the age of 18, which approximates the voter registration rate.

Between 2014 and 2016, the voter registration rate increased slightly, from 82.7% in 2015 to 85.3% in 2016. Increases occurred across all three counties in the region.